Five Great Canadian Political Comebacks

Unlike Pierre Trudeau, Michael Ignatieff can't rest on his laurels – he'll have to keep trekking uphill to win the vote.

A foul-tempered electorate defeated Pierre Trudeau’s Liberal government in 1979, ending its 11 years in office. Most of the ill mood was directed at him personally. His strategic advisers Senator Keith Davey and principal secretary Jim Coutts decided, in Davey’s memorable phrase, “to low-bridge” Trudeau in the months that followed – in other words, to help him keep a low profile so as not to remind people they disliked him. That is a manoeuvre that works best for ex-prime ministers, not for current Opposition leaders who struggle constantly to stay in the public’s sight. Thus, Trudeau spending the summer of 1979 lying low offers no guide for Michael Ignatieff on his uphill quest-by-bus for voters’ hearts and minds.

In defeating Trudeau, the voters gave Conservative Joe Clark a minority government. Clark was – and is – a man of decency and intelligence who gave dull speeches and lacked charisma, like Ignatieff. He did not connect with the voters’ hearts, similar to Ignatieff. He was seen as an accident prone, ambiguous, indecisive leader, like Ignatieff. And when his government fell seven months after taking office, triggering the 1980 election, the Conservatives’ two most disconcerting problems were, in order, the image of Clark’s leadership and the public perception that his party looked unsteady and at times incompetent, much like the Liberal party Ignatieff leads.

Clark and his election team believed distaste for Trudeau and antipathy toward his policies were so great that voters’ hearts across the country – except in Quebec, where Liberal support was overwhelming – would flutter at the prospect of welcoming the Conservatives back to office. Many Liberals today optimistically believe distaste for Stephen Harper and his government – except in Alberta where Conservative support is overwhelming – will set hearts a-fluttering at the prospect of ejecting them from office.

I brought a senior Liberal strategist to my class at the University of Toronto. He asked my students: “How many of you feel less nervous about Stephen Harper than you did six months ago.” More than half raised their hands. The more Harper is around, pointed out the Liberal strategist, the more used to him the electorate becomes.

In 1980, the Conservatives recognized their one hope for electoral success was reminding voters of their previous feelings toward Trudeau. At the campaign’s outset, they discovered that antipathy to Trudeau had largely subsided; it was as if the electorate had blocked out his 11 years in power. Asked which man was better equipped to handle national problems, 60 per cent said Trudeau, 20 per cent said Clark.

Harper rates higher as a leader than Ignatieff, although by a much smaller gulf. But only Harper, because he runs a government and Ignatieff doesn’t, has the ability to demonstrate leadership.

In an election campaign, only a minority of the electorate changes its voting intentions, the so-called switchers and undecided voters who usually make up their minds on the basis of “leadership” and the parties’ general images rather than promises or policies. Michael Ignatieff’s uphill quest-by-bus is going to remain uphill. Very uphill.

This article is part of the series, "Five Great Canadian Political Comebacks." Check out the rest of the essays here.