NDP Struggling to Tread Water

A lacklustre leadership campaign hasn't exactly helped the official opposition's profile among Canadians – and especially Quebecers.

In recent weeks, the NDP has been pulled between holding a leadership race and trying to hold a steamroller of a government to account from the opposition benches. Early results suggest the going hasn't exactly been easy under the direction of interim leader Nycole Turmel, as recent polls suggest the party has lost ground to the Liberals in Ontario and Bloc Quebecois in Quebec. As for la belle province, The Globe and Mail's Lysiane Gagnon makes the fairly substantial, if obvious, point that this is probably due to the loss of Jack Layton and his (apparently unique, within the NDP, anyway) ability to straddle the Quebec-Rest of Canada divide with grace and ease. His "disappearance left a terrible void, especially in Quebec, where many voted for 'Jack' rather than for a party they knew little about," writes Gagnon. "Not only is the NDP without a leader, it is totally devoid of leadership." Well, at least for another few months until the party votes on a new leader. Even then, though, Thomas Mulcair is the only (viable) candidate from Quebec, and the minimal level of NDP membership in Quebec assures that the province's voice in that race will be severely muted. Stickhandling around that mess will be the first test of the new leader, and could very well foretell the party's fortunes in Quebec come 2015.

Chantal Hebert of the Toronto Star figures that the NDP's status as official opposition is "hardly a done deal," pointing to two decisions made by the party's executive that suggest the NDP is still wet behind the ears. "By focusing on leaping to government rather than on consolidating its second-place position, the party may have gotten dangerously ahead of itself," she writes. Appointing Nycole Turmel made sense only if Layton was actually going to return. Instead, the party has "[handed] her the keys for a stand-alone ride for the better part of a defining year." Hindsight is 20/20, and it's never good to speak ill of the dead, but Layton's anointing of Turmel appears to be one of the less insightful decisions the man made in his final months. (Heck, at just more than a third of Turmel's age, MP Charmaine Borg, 21, is already a greater force on the Commons floor than Turmel. Ditto for Charlie Angus, who almost single-handedly turned the country's eyes to the tragedy of Attawapiskat.) The party's second regrettable decision, says Hebert, was its decision to rush a leadership race without making sure that each region of Canada (read: Quebec) has a fair say in the proceedings. "It would not be so bad for the NDP to be momentarily bleeding support in Quebec and under-performing in Parliament if its leadership contest gave it a lift elsewhere and in other ways," says Hebert. But that's yet to be the case so far, and given interim Liberal leader Bob Rae's performance since May 2, it's entirely possible that support could bleed to the Liberals even more than polls already suggest it has.

And finally, the National Post's Keith Beardsley takes a look at the crop of leadership contenders and sees "a decent bunch of individuals and hardworking constituency MPs." Unfortunately, according to Beardsley, it takes a bit more than a good attitude and the respect of your constituents to become prime minister, which is the ultimate goal of the race. "Politics is as much about ego as it is experience and the low financial commitment required to enter the NDP leadership race has allowed those with the ego, if not the experience or ability, to run for the leadership," says Beardsley. One could also say that opening up the race will lead to a greater exchange of ideas, both policy-wise and political, that would undoubtedly strengthen the party and generate more interest in the campaign. However, with the exception of Paul Dewar, Nathan Cullen, and Brian Topp, the contenders' campaigns have been more dedicated to securing endorsements than unveiling platforms. Granted, the vote is still four months away. Canadians aren't likely to pay too much attention to it until after the holidays, giving the contenders a month to figure out what they stand for and what they'd do as a prime minister. Furthermore, it gives candidates with a compelling vision and the means to articulate that vision ample time to refine their talking points without a media spotlight that will await them after Jan. 1. If none of the candidates are able to do that, perhaps the constant refrain that the NDP hardly looks like a government-in-waiting will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.