Does El Niño Cause Conflict in the Tropics?

Survey says yes.

Yet another reason to panic about the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO): In addition to causing flood and droughts, a new study has linked it to increased civil conflict in tropical countries. ENSO, which is caused by water temperature and air pressure changes in the Pacific Ocean, is a climate pattern that alternates between periods of extremely warm and dry "El Niño" years, and colder, wetter "La Niña" years. According to a study of 175 countries, tropical countries doubled their annual conflict risk (the chance of a new political dispute causing at least 25 deaths) during El Niño years, rising from three per cent to six per cent. Non-tropical countries proved far better able to weather the changes, remaining at a constant two per cent. Though the reason for this correlation is unknown, scientists are speculating that it might relate to El Niño years' decreased agricultural output, increased natural disasters, or the fact that really hot weather makes people cranky.