Dealing with Libya's Devil

Would a negotiated settlement that allows Gadhafi to eke out his last years in Libya hasten an end to the war?

Reports are swirling over whether Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi might step down from power amid a four-month civil war. Roland Paris, writing for The Globe and Mail, wonders what might happen in the wake of Gadhafi's departure. “Rebel unity and discipline may be sorely tested in the absence of their common enemy,” writes Paris. “Preventing violent score-settling will be an early priority.” Paris hopes the fallout leans toward the reconciliation displayed by South Africa after the apartheid era, and not the sectarian warfare that engulfed Iraq after Saddam Hussein and his Ba'athist regime were swept aside. Regardless of how it works out, “the current war may only be the first chapter of a lengthy international involvement in Libya.” Whether that involvement takes the shape of overseeing elections and helping Libyans write a constitution or sending in peacekeepers to stop tribal bloodshed is anyone's guess at this point.

Of course, planning for those contingencies is next to impossible due to “the information gaps in a hard to report war taking place in a country too few foreigners know well,” as the Financial Times' Michael Peel aptly puts it. “Because the colonel is the only ruler Libya has known since the 1969 revolution, there is no precedent for how the power-plays within either this complex nation or his inner circle will resolve themselves.” Which also explains why NATO has jumped into bed with the Transitional National Council, which, for all its apparent commitment to democracy, remains very much a chimera, albeit one whose goal of Gadhafi's removal is aligned with NATO's.

The Guardian's Brian Whitaker studies whether Gadhafi could leave office but still live in Libya, reportedly one of the main tenets of any deal he'd sign. While doing so might seem like a simple solution, it would also severely undermine confidence in the International Criminal Court, which has issued warrants for the arrest of Gadhafi and his inner circle as it struggles to gain legitimacy. “Letting him stay in Libya under 'international supervision' is probably impractical, since it would amount to protecting him from arrest – in defiance of the ICC,” writes Whitaker. More worrying still is what precedent this would set for other dictators, as letting Gadhafi stick around in Libya might lead Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh or Syria's Bashar al-Assad to think the only punishment they'll ever get for their crackdowns is a nice retirement home instead of a jail cell in the Hague.