They Came, They Saw, They Left

On ways to redefine 'victory' so that we can leave Afghanistan with some semblance of dignity.

U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to withdraw 30,000 American troops from Afghanistan by the end of next year marks the beginning of the end of Western involvement in the Central Asian country. Leslie H. Gelb, writing for The Daily Beast, thinks Obama should have declared the withdrawal as proof of a “mission accomplished,” because the initial goals of the Afghan adventure – routing the Taliban and al-Qaeda – have been met. The number of al Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan is in the tens, not hundreds or thousands, and U.S. officials estimate that between 20,000 to 40,000 Taliban remain, a fraction of the 200,000 or so members of the Afghan army. “Obama could have said, accurately, that the U.S. military has already done a great job in bringing the enemy down to levels that should be manageable by friendly Afghans,” says Gelb. “He also could have said that if the Afghans, with all our support—indeed with all our prospective support—can't cope with 20,000 to 40,000 Taliban, then only heaven can help them.”

Whereas some see fruits of U.S. military might, others, notably The Telegraph's Peter Oborne, see it as nothing short of the decline of the Western hegemony. By 2014, when all NATO troops are expected to have withdrawn, Oborne figures “the Taliban will return to power, conceivably with Mullah Omar (still topping the FBI’s most wanted terrorist list) coming down from the mountains to resume his old position, so rudely interrupted, as Head of the Supreme Council and effective head of state.” Kabul will come to reflect at best a “provincial Saudi Arabian city”, while the U.S. will have little to show beyond billions more in debt and “prodigious military muscle that is practically useless for 21st-century warfare.” At least this level of pessimism affords Oborne plenty of room to be impressed should even one of his predictions turn out to be wrong.

And back here in Canada, with our own little Afghan matter over the handling of detainees being declared “over” by the Tories, Tim Harper of the Toronto Star concludes it's proof that Canadians and Americans have already mentally checked out of the war. “There seems to be no energy, particularly from the Liberal corner, to stay on this issue with the reality of a Conservative majority and the lure of a summer break,” writes Harper. “Voters have decided enough is enough and it’s time that the 10-year-old problem is handed over to the Afghans.” The Canadian combat mission will wrap up by the end of July both the prime minister and the president have claimed some measure of victory, and polls suggest Canadians' interest in the war has waned substantially. That could be for the better – there's a brand new conflict in Libya just begging for their attention.