Preparing to Pull Out

As the Canadian Forces get set to leave Kandahar, how will their political masters contend with the aftermath?

Canada's involvement on the battlefields of Afghanistan will end next month, a prelude to a full-scale withdrawal of western forces by 2014. Henry Kissinger, a man who knows something about withdrawing from intractable conflicts, offers a framework in The Washington Post for how the coalition should proceed: “Four conditions must be met: a ceasefire; withdrawal of all or most American and allied forces; the creation of a coalition government or division of territories among the contending parties (or both); and an enforcement mechanism.” Making sure Afghanistan is (relatively) safe after withdrawal is of the utmost importance to countries that share its borders. Kissinger writes that any prospect of stability in Central Asia depends on co-operation over Afghanistan between Pakistan, Iran, Russia, India, and the western forces that invaded it in the first place – truly no small diplomatic task.

While politicians might herald withdrawal as an end to their military's involvement in the country, Simon Tisdall of The Guardian posits that “the prospect of a continuing presence of quasi-permanent U.S. military bases in both [Iraq and Afghanistan], lasting far beyond the nominal exit dates, is a very real one.” Both countries face economic crises if the U.S. pulls out, as American aid dollars would dry up overnight, and senior military brass, including Gen. David Petraeus (“Cross him at your peril,” Tisdall warns U.S. President Barack Obama), remain committed to a long-term counter-insurgency strategy. “Behind all the talk of withdrawals lies this dirty little secret: The Yanks aren't going home.”

Eugene Lang, writing in the Ottawa Citizen, divines some lessons for Canada to learn from the Afghan adventure, chief among them being the need for a more robust diplomatic corps. “Know the most troubled and unstable countries and regions of the world, as these are the places that are most likely to require Canadian military intervention in the future,” writes Lang, a former chief-of-staff to two defence ministers. With no diplomatic presence in Afghanistan for 30 years, the military was too often forced to figure out Afghan politics, culture, and history on its own. Fixing this would require a significant investment in foreign affairs, which hardly seems like a priority for the Tories, but Lang says the end result would be saving the lives of Canadian soldiers when they fight overseas.