Democracy Now, Tyranny Later?

In which the pundits celebrate/freak out about events unfolding in Egypt.

In a fascinating column in the Toronto Star, Rami G. Khouri attempts to put the current uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt into historical prospective. Khouri, who is editor of the Beirut Daily Star, exudes optimism at the sight of populist Arab revolt, writing that the world is witnessing the belated “unraveling of the post-colonial order that the British and French created in the Arab world in the 1920s and ’30s … Never before have we had entire Arab populations stand up and insist on naming their rulers, shaping their governance system, and defining the values” that shape their countries. After decades of oppression, “we finally have a breakthrough to our full humanity,” he writes. For critics who say that even if Hosni Mubarak is overthrown democracy is a still long way off, Khouri offers this reminder: “the Europeans needed 500 years to make the transition from the Magna Carta to the French Revolution. The Americans needed 300 years to transition from slavery to civil rights and women’s rights.” The point is that while it will not be smooth sailing Arabs have the same right as Westerners to develop their societies, and it’s hard to argue against.

Writing in the Ottawa Citizen, Barry Rubin is much less optimistic. “To expect the crisis in Egypt will have a happy ending in creating a peaceful, stable, democratic state where Egyptians are better off is a very dangerous assumption,” he writes. As many other commentators have done, Rubin raises the spectre of the Iranian revolution, which began with such hope but ended with the emergence of a brutal and dangerous regime. It’s better to hope for the best in Egypt, says Rubin, “but it’s also better to fear the worst … Wishful thinking is neither a good analysis nor a good policy.” We in The Mark Newsroom would argue that fear is also not good policy. Fear of communists and terrorists causes administrations to do things like start unnecessary wars in Iraq and Vietnam, and those tend to not turn out so well.

Related links:

Bush Deserves Credit for What's Happening in Egypt

Uprising in Egypt: World Leaders React

Egypt Timeline: What Got Us Here