Remember the Reform Party? Neither Does Michael Ignatieff

With Stephen Harper entrenched in power, the opposition might want to look to Canada circa 2000 for a way to oust him.

“Canadian federal politics has repeatedly followed [a] pattern,” writes John H. Pammett in the Winnipeg Free Press, of “long periods of political hegemony under successful political leaders, punctuated by short, sharp interludes.” The next election, says Pammett, will determine “whether we have a Harper dynasty or merely a Harper interlude.” According to Pammett, Canadian dynasties have always been built on performance in the three key areas of the economy, national unity, and social policy, and success is within Harper’s reach in all three. Pammett might be right, but it’s tough to believe that the Conservatives will make much headway on the unity file while the Bloc control Québec. And should Harper fail to score a majority, could you really call three minority governments a dynasty?

In the Vancouver Sun, Barbara Yaffe summarizes some recent statements by Harper’s former campaign manager Tom Flanagan, who says Harper has created a “garrison party” over which he exercises complete control at every level. Dissent is not tolerated. There’s nothing new here, especially if you’ve read Lawrence Martin’s Harperland (in which Flanagan is heavily quoted), but it’s a good description of the leadership style that has kept Harper in power, and opened him up to criticism that he’s abandoned democratic principles and his grassroots Reform origins.

The Toronto Star’s Chantal Hébert says the current political climate is a mirror image of 10 years ago, when the Chretien Liberals feasted on a political right divided between the Conservatives and the Reform/Alliance Party. “Like the then-Tories, many Liberals believe their party will be restored to its former glory just as soon as it gets its hands on the right leader,” she writes, while “[l]ike the then-Reformers, some New Democrats continue to believe they will eventually overtake the Liberals.” While Hébert’s assessment is correct, there’s one area in which today’s political situation doesn’t mirror that of a decade ago: when the right finally merged, they could only muster a minority, while an NDP-Liberal marriage would certainly result in a majority. All the more incentive for Layton and Ignatieff to walk down the aisle together.