Iggy's Got the By-Election Blues

The Liberals lost a seat in Vaughan but gained one in Winnipeg. The pundits do the math and declare that Michael Ignatieff's goose is cooked.

In the wake of yesterday’s trio of federal by-elections that resulted in a Liberal win in Winnipeg and Conservative victories in Vaughan and rural Manitoba, the National Post’s Kelly McParland lays out the case for why the Conservatives should call an election next spring. His reasons include that they may not be able to hold Vaughan for long, the Liberals’ are vastly outmatched financially, key ridings in Toronto are trending conservative thanks to Rob Ford, and polls show that although Tories probably wouldn’t win a majority in a spring election, they’d definitely win. “That would almost certainly be the end of Ignatieff,” writes McParland. “After two failed leaderships and no obvious rising stars in the wings, the Liberals could find themselves broke, leaderless, dispirited, and exhausted.” It’s a pretty strong case, and Harper is probably aware of it. But if there’s one thing the prime minister might desire more than the destruction of the Liberals, it’s a federal majority, and he may be holding out hope for that prize.

The Post’s Keith Beardsley takes a similar view, saying that the loss in Vaughan is the nail in the coffin for Ignatieff’s leadership because it shows that “not a single seat in metro Toronto is a safe bet for [the Liberals]” and there’s nothing Ignatieff can do to prevent the Conservatives from gobbling up the rest of the GTA. Beardsley’s out on a limb here, because, as anyone who lives in the GTA can tell you, equating Vaughan to the rest of Toronto is like equating New Jersey to New York: they’re geographically adjacent, but politically distant. It’s no sure thing that Bloor Street will be painted Tory blue next election.

Somewhat refreshingly, Dan Lett of the Winnipeg Free Press throws cold water on the proceedings, saying by-election results traditionally don’t mean much. “We in the media are trained to detect and report the slightest change in fortune or momentum,” he writes, “But the results in these most recent by-elections do not change the fact that this is a country in political gridlock.” Put that one in the "depressing but true" file.