Take a Deep Breath, Korea Will Be Alright

Despite the sabre rattling on the Korean peninsula, the pundits predict that a full-scale war is not about to erupt.

The popular explanation put forth whenever North Korea does something unpredictable is that Kim Jong-il is insane, but thankfully Harry Sterling has a more insightful analysis. Writing in the Ottawa Citizen, he says: “In the past, whenever Kim Jong-il felt it necessary to initiate significant or unpopular policies affecting the lives of his beleaguered population … he often would carry out some form of provocation against South Korea.” In light of this history, Tuesday’s artillery barrage should probably be interpreted as an attempt by an ailing Kim Jong-il to unify his people as he attempts to cement his shaky dynasty by appointing his son as his successor. Sterling says the North has no interest in going to war, and everyone should calm down.

Speculating that up to 800,000 North Koreans starve to death every year, Sun Media’s Peter Worthington thinks the solution to the current standoff is to starve them even more. “What western countries should do, is suspend all aid and commerce with North Korea,” he writes. “Proportionately, this country of 23 million has the biggest army in the world. So let’s stop feeding it. Maybe the generals will then revolt.” Maybe, but history would suggest otherwise. Sanctions failed against Castro and Saddam, and eliminating aid to Pyongyang would do nothing to curb its ability to strike Seoul, which lies within missile range of North Korea. Big whiff, Worthington.

The Hill’s Anne Penketh writes that there’s little South Korea or the U.S. can do to tame North Korea. Pyongyang has no incentive to negotiate its nuclear program away because it’s the only thing guaranteeing the regime’s safety, and a military response would be potentially devastating to the South. China apparently has either no interest or no ability to put a leash on Kim, and there is even speculation that Beijing is hoping to annex North Korea. Penketh says the only option is to just wait it out: “The only certainty is that the Pyongyang regime will collapse, whether it be a ‘soft landing’ or an implosion. It may have unpredictable consequences, but it will be a cause to rejoice.”